Maths PISA Results in Wales

PISA scores were published in December 2023. Wales were bottom of the four home nations with maths, reading and science results all the lowest scores we’ve ever achieved. Wales’ score in Mathematics (466) was particularly low and shows a sharp decline from the last cycle and compares very poorly with England’s score (492). However, this is not a problem which has sneaked up on us – Wales has been scoring lower than the other home nations in Maths since we started taking part in PISA in 2006. Below is a historical look at some of the mathematical milestones in terms of policy, results and reporting.

Wales suffered disappointing PISA results in 2006 (484) and then again in 2009 (472). The Education minister at the time, Leighton Andrews, called the 2009 PISA results “even more disappointing” than the 2006 PISA results ^[1].

In 2009 the inspectorate in Wales, Estyn, reported that “Many primary schools are failing to teach maths properly because the teachers themselves lack understanding of the subject” ^[2]

In 2011, Leighton Andrews called recent PISA results as a “wake up call to a complacent system…These results cannot be argued away or excused. We need to face up to the harsh truth: schools in Wales are not delivering the outcomes that our young people need and deserve.” ^[3] The Minister’s ambition was that Wales would be in the top 20 of PISA by 2015.

A 20 point action plan was unveiled by Leighton Andrews and Welsh Gov in 2011 with the specific aim of improving standards in literacy and numeracy ^[4]. Measures included a new Masters in Education, a new school banding system, and the creation of a Literacy and Numeracy Framework (LNF). The LNF became statutory in 2013 and its aim was to “raise the bar in terms of pupil outcomes” and the associated tests in reading and mathematics were to give “a more coherent picture of literacy and numeracy abilities in Wales” ^[3]. Pupils in Year 2-9 were to be given these tests every year in Wales and numeracy skills are tested in a ‘Numeracy Procedural’ test and a ‘Numeracy Reasoning’ test. These tests remain in 2024.

In 2012, Welsh Gov published a National Numeracy Programme, seeking “to achieve a step-change in standards of numeracy over the next five years.” ^[5]Within it, numeracy was defined as “Identifying and applying numerical reasoning skills in order to solve a problem, and carrying out the numerical procedures which enable people to work out and show their solutions.” This programme sought to promote the importance of numeracy (rather than mathematics) and to develop students’ numeracy skills across the curriculum.

Wales’ 2012 PISA Maths score of 469 was lower than the two previous cycles and significantly lower than England’s score of 495.

The Welsh school inspectorate Estyn produced report on ‘Good practice in Mathematics at KS4’ 2013. The report stated that “Many Welsh employers are concerned at the lack of mathematical skills demonstrated by employees…Overall, there is too little support for the professional development of teachers of mathematics whether it be from other schools, local authorities or regional consortia” ^[6].

New Education minister Huw Lewis told delegates at 2013 NUT Cymru’s annual conference that improving standards in maths was a priority for the Welsh Government ^[7].

A poll commissioned by the Welsh government in 2014 found that three in 10 parents admit making negative comments about maths in front of their children. In response, Welsh gov launched a campaign to encourage parents to help children with the subject and to display positive attitudes towards Maths ^[8].

Results in 2014 showed that the number of pupils in Wales achieving C+ in GCSE Mathematics increased by eight percentage points since 2007. However, mathematics was still the lowest performing core subject at KS4 in Wales.

Welsh Gov commissioned the OECD to review its education in schools. The report was released in 2014 and was largely negative. It stated that although learning environments were positive, the new Welsh Gov reforms “lack a long-term vision” and that Wales was finding it difficult to recruit high-calibre teachers ^[9].

The mood across Wales brightened slightly in 2015 with its highest proportion ever of students achieving A*-C in Maths (64.4%) and an improved PISA score for Maths of 478 (England 494).

In 2015 Education Minister Huw Lewis claimed that numerical reasoning “didn’t exist in our educational system two years ago” ^[10], and set a target of achieving a mean score of 500 in all three of the PISA domains by 2021.

In 2015, a Maths Task and Finish Group was established. This independent group produced a report focusing on what effective maths teaching looks like and how Wales could improve its Mathematics teaching and indeed number of Mathematics teachers. Fifteen recommendations were made including as establishing a Centre of Excellent for Maths Teaching and reviewing training routes and financial incentives into teaching ^[11]. Welsh Gov responded positively to this report by accepting or accepting in principle all 15 recommendations ^[12].

Estyn’s 2015 ‘Good practice in KS3 Mathematics’ made a number of recommendations to schools and Welsh Gov. Examples are the at maths departments should make sure that “Mathematical problem-solving skills are developed and applied to a wide range of real-life contexts “ and that Welsh Gov should “address shortages in the supply of qualified mathematics teachers” ^[13]

Following a review of qualifications by Welsh Gov, Maths based GCSEs were reformed and first taught in schools across Wales in 2015. A new Mathematics-Numeracy GCSE was introduced that built upon the LNF which tested students’ numeracy skills in questions that were typically worded and in real life contexts. The Mathematics GCSE remained and although there is overlap between the two GCSEs, they are distinct. Two tiers were abandoned in favour of three tiers (Higher A*-C, Intermediate B-E and Foundation D-G).

The new Education minister, Kirsty Williams conceded that Wales were “not yet where we want to be” but that the OECD’s advice to her was to “stay the course, be brave, you are doing the right things.” ^[14]

2015 also saw the publication of the landmark ‘Successful Futures’ report ^[15]. This was an independent Review of Curriculum and Assessment Arrangements in Wales by Graham Donaldson, who had earlier worked on educational reforms in Scotland. Within the report was a proposal of a new curriculum which was adopted by Welsh Gov to be rolled out in 2021. Prof Mark Preistly, a member of Welsh Gov’s Curriculum and Assessment group, stated that the new curriculum “moves schools away from prescriptive content-led approaches to teaching, and affords teachers and schools considerable autonomy in developing a school-based curriculum to meet local needs…It emphases the centrality of the learner, and the importance of developing so-called 21st century skills, to equip young people to thrive in modern complex democratic societies and in the workplace”. ^[16]

In 2017, Wales quietly dropped the target of PISA scores of 500 in every subject by 2021. ^[17] In the same year, Kirsty Williams unveiled a Maths network which was to receive £800,000 a year for four years. (side note: I attended this event and met Hannah Fry 😊) This was a response to the 2015 Maths Task and Finish report. Its aim was to drive up standards and to bring together schools, colleges, universities and the four regional education consortia ^[18].

Wales’s 2018 PISA score in Maths of 487 was statistically significantly better than the 2015 performance and although still below England (502) was in line with the Scottish and NI results. This score, building on the improvement from the 2015 results, was a cause for optimism. This optimism was tempered by the assessment of Wales’ education system by Andreas Schleicher, head of education and skills at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). His view was that Wales’ education system had “lost its soul” by not focusing on high quality teaching, and called for more investment in professional learning and greater parental input ^[19].

‘Too many secondary schools are still causing concern’, according to the Estyn Chief Inspector’s 2018/19 annual report. Whilst standards were good or better in 81% of primary schools inspected in 2018/19, this was true for only 45% of secondary schools ^[20].

The new Curriculum for Wales was rolled out in 2022. The Maths & Numeracy AOLE (Area of Learning Experience) consisted of ‘What Matters Statements’ of Number, Algebra, Geometry and Statistics. The mathematical content to be taught was pretty well defined and similar to the previous curriculum. New were the 5 Mathematical Proficiencies: fluency, conceptual understanding, logical reasoning, communication with symbols, and strategic competence. Mathematical topics are to be taught through the lens of these proficiencies.

Although teacher recruitment and retention worries eased slightly during the pandemic, the NFER’s report on the subject showed that Maths ITE (Initial teacher education) entries have been lower that the target allocations for the past 10 years ^[21].

Estyn’s 2022/23 annual report cited a number of concerns related to high levels of absence, staff shortages and that “the teaching of mathematics and numeracy (in secondary schools) was ineffective in a large minority of lessons with too much emphasis on procedural fluency and insufficient focus on developing pupils’ mathematical proficiencies.” ^[22]

Summer 2023 was the last series where students were given allowances or adaptations due to the pandemic. Results of 47% and 56% were good enough for A grades in GCSE Maths (higher paper) and AS Maths respectively.

In 2023, Welsh Gov published a report analysing the results of the national test scores from 2018/19 to 2022/23. During this COVID era, progress in Maths was mixed, with gains made in the Reasoning tests but some decline in the Procedural tests ^[23].

Following Wales’ poor PISA results in 2022, Education Minister Jeremy Miles committed to publish a plan to “raise standards and provide every practitioner with the knowledge to support learners to apply their mathematical skills across the new Curriculum for Wales” ^[24] This plan was published in November 2023 and lists the following four action points; ^[25]

Actively promote the importance and relevance of mathematics and numeracy skills
Support the development of a positive ‘can do’ mindset and approach across schools, settings, parents, carers and the wider community to promote mathematics and numeracy
Develop a national professional learning offer for mathematics and numeracy coherent with CfW and underpinned by the National Professional Learning Entitlement
In realising CfW, support educators throughout Wales to develop their practice, knowledge and confidence so that they in turn can encourage and guide learners in how to apply their mathematics and numeracy skills across the curriculum

In early 2024, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) published a damning report about Wales’ education outcomes, policy and future prospects ^[26]. The report said that Wales could not blame its recent low PISA scores on poverty rates, statistical bias or resources. Instead, Wales’ policy and approach to education came under fire. The IFS set out a number of recommendations including;

The new Curriculum for Wales should place greater emphasis on specific knowledge.
Reforms to GCSEs should be delayed to give proper time to consider their effects on long-term outcomes, teacher workload and inequalities.
More data on pupil skill levels and the degree of inequality in attainment are needed and should be published regularly.
A move towards school report cards, alongside existing school inspections, could be an effective way to provide greater information for parents without a return to league tables.

A spokesman from Welsh Gov responded that “its GSCE reforms would go ahead and defended its performance, saying that before the Covid pandemic Wales had been the only UK country with improving Pisa results in literacy, numeracy and science.” Curriculum for Wales was defended; “The role of knowledge is at the forefront of our new curriculum and it is wrong to claim otherwise. Having worked with teachers and experts to create a curriculum fit for the modern world, we are pleased to see evaluations showing schools confidently embracing the opportunity to raise the aspirations of all learners.” ^[27]

GCSEs are being reformed for 2025 and details are due soon. A new double award GCSE will replace the existing system and we will go back to two tiers. We also know that there will be three units; Financial Maths, and a non-calculator and calculator paper.

The End. For now.

References

[1] Welsh Government, Minister for Children, Education and Lifelong Learning (Leighton Andrews), Statement on the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), Cabinet Written Statement, 7 December 2010

[2] https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/maths-teaching-criticised-estyn-report-2098194

[3] National Assembly for Wales Research paper Literacy and Numeracy in Wales June 2013

[4] Written Statement – School Performance (7 February 2012) | GOV.WALES

[5] National Numeracy Programme, Welsh Gov 2012 . 120921nnpguideen.pdf (ioe.ac.uk)

[6] Microsoft Word – Key Stage 4 Maths Remit Report – post AK.docx (gov.wales)

[7] https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/secondary-schools-wales-urged-raise-6146144

[8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26405765

[9] OECD: Welsh government lacks education ‘long-term vision’ – BBC News

[10] https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-education-minister-huw-lewis-9639877

[11] mathematics-task-and-finish-group-report-and-recommendations.pdf (gov.wales)

[12] the-welsh-government-response-to-the-report-of-the-mathematics-task-and-finish-group.pdf

[13] Good practice in mathematics at key stage 3 – Training material | Estyn (gov.wales)